Trade Reorientation in a Fragmented World

The End of Hyperglobalisation

The rules-based trading order that Canada benefited from enormously since the 1990s is under sustained pressure. US-China decoupling, reshoring incentives under the US Inflation Reduction Act, and the weaponisation of trade policy as a geopolitical instrument are restructuring global supply chains. Canada sits at an uncomfortable intersection: deeply integrated with the US economy, yet seeking to diversify.

The CUSMA Anchor

About 75% of Canadian exports go to the United States. The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement provides a degree of certainty, but recurring threats of tariffs — particularly in autos, steel, and aluminium — remind Canadian exporters that proximity to the US market is both an enormous advantage and a concentration risk.

Critical Minerals: A Strategic Opportunity

Canada holds significant deposits of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements — all critical to the green energy transition. Both the US and EU are actively courting Canadian supply to reduce dependence on Chinese processing capacity. This creates a rare window for Canada to leverage natural resources into strategic economic relationships and value-added processing industries.